Focusing on AI, Forgetting Demographics: America’s Overlooked Workforce Challenge
This report, Focusing on AI, Forgetting Demographics: America’s Overlooked Workforce Challenge, finds that nearly one-fifth of U.S. employment is concentrated in population-serving human service occupations where demand is sensitive to demographic change. While the measures are not directly equivalent, the paper finds that this employment footprint is similar in scale to several prominent estimates of U.S. workforce exposure to Artificial Intelligence (AI).
The report uses established Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational categories and government employment data to provide a bounded, replicable measure of population-serving employment. It does not predict the probability of job loss, future wages, or specific economic outcomes resulting from demographic change.
In addition, the analysis examines what the report calls the “demographic workforce paradox,” where population aging can increase demand for certain human services at the same time that persistently low fertility produces smaller younger generations available to enter the workforce to provide labor. HPI plans to build on this research with a forthcoming paper outlining a policy framework to directly address declining fertility through economic reforms aimed at mitigating its potential effects on the workforce and broader economy.
Key Findings
Human-Service Employment
Approximately 31.8 million U.S. jobs are concentrated in four population-serving BLS occupational groups
Those jobs represent 18.7 percent of total U.S. employment
The analysis measures employment exposure to demographic change and does not forecast specific job losses or displacement
Workforce and Demographic Trends
The U.S. total fertility rate was approximately 1.60 births per woman in 2024, below the replacement level of approximately 2.1
The U.S. general fertility rate has declined approximately 23 percent since 2007
BLS projects the civilian labor force ages 16 to 24 will decline 9.2 percent from 2025 to 2035
Potential Policy Implications
Population aging is expected to increase demand for healthcare workers while smaller younger cohorts could constrain future labor supply
Declining student-age populations could affect education employment and school financing
Demographic changes could affect housing markets, public finances, and competition among states for workers and families
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